There’s a very strange mentality concerning “growth”. If this is zero in one year, then everyone gets in a tizzy and there is general gloom. HOWEVER, doesn’t this mean that WE ARE JUST AS WELL OFF AS IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR?
So, WHY PANIC? Could it be that SPENDING is based on the ASSUMPTION that there will be future growth and NOT in fact on the money that we actually HAVE?
I believe this was the Gordon Brown method, made worse by the fact that his growth predictions were always wrong of course. Still, everyone knew that so it probably didn’t matter. You just took his predictions and divided by 2.
I never assume I’ll be better off next year than this. In fact, over the last 13 years plus one of the Coalition I’ve planned for the opposite. I wonder if my theory of “growth” would not be better for Chancellors? Then, instead of:
“Oops – my growth predictions were wildly off but I’ve already borrowed money to pay silly pensions to civil servants on the basis of my wild predictions and as a consequence our debt has risen and the £ fallen – Sorreeeeee …..”
We might have:
“Well chaps and lasses, we actually had a BIGGER income than we predicted and so can NOW spend some money on a new railway from Bognor to Hastings – or we might bung some mandarins a bonus of course.”
Now, let’s see – who can I BLAME for this perverse mentality concerning growth? After all, SOMEONE must be to blame! People weren’t BORN with these barmy ideas, were they?